2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years
2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years
Jorgen Randers
2012
396pp, paperback
Chelsea Green Publishing, Vermont
ISBN: 9781603584210
Review by David Teather
Jorgen Randers seeks to answer a crucial question: Forty years hence, what will our world be like? He doesn't engage in wishful thinking. Instead he presents a readable, well-informed, comprehensive yet focused study of how the next four decades will unfold.
Randers identifies the main drivers of change, and those influences likely to impede a better outcome. His book empowers the reader not only to anticipate changes but also to act to alter the bigger picture. Randers appeals to his readers: "Please help to make my forecast wrong. Together we could create a much better world."
As a researcher at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Randers co-authored the 1972 study, The Limits to Growth. This concluded that, without big changes, humanity was poised to grow dangerously beyond the limits of our planet. He later became President of the BI Norwegian Business School, and Deputy Director International of the World Wildlife Fund.
Randers' forecast is based on actual and trend data on world population, workforce and production (GDP), and the proportions of production devoted to consumption and investment. Resource and climate problems are treated as a function of production, affecting the level of investment; labour productivity as a function of social tension, relating to growth in consumption and how consumption is distributed.
Randers expected to uncover a bleak, even catastrophic future, ending in environmental collapse before 2050. Instead his forecast reveals a much more diverse world by 2052, "some regions (particularly China) doing quite well, and others having failed miserably and fallen into anarchy, and all of them toiling in increasingly erratic weather ..."
Overall, increasing urbanisation will be accompanied by a dramatic decline in fertility, with the global population peaking at 8.1 billion in 2040. Global GDP will double by 2050. Productivity growth and consumption growth will slow, and an ever-greater proportion of GDP will be allocated to investment to solve problems caused by resource depletion, pollution, climate change, biodiversity loss and social/economic inequity. Because of increased investment, resource and climate problems will not become catastrophic before 2052, but there will be much unnecessary suffering from unabated climate damage.
People will seek opportunity, safety and strength in huge cities, so urban communities will dominate. The culture of artificial, urban living will weaken efforts to protect nature. Biodiversity will suffer.
Randers believes that solving the major problems of poverty and climate change are well within human capability. Indeed, in a joint article in the Journal of Social Responsibility (June 2010), he and Paul Gilding demonstrated how the climate war can be won.
But in 2052 some three billion people will still live in poverty. And global temperature will have risen by about 2 degrees celsius, with the spectre of self-reinforcing climate change in prospect for the latter half of the century.
Why will it come to this? You need to read Randers' analysis in full, but briefly it will be because we have become conditioned to accept the cheapest solutions on offer. These are rarely the surest or best ways to solve serious, long-term problems.
Mainstream economists still take for granted the life-supporting services provided by our natural environment, and omit them from their models. They also prioritise the present by heavily discounting the future. In light of Randers' forecast, the assumption that life in the future will be better than today, and that it is therefore reasonable to postpone to the future those problems that appear difficult to solve now, is simply not tenable.
Both capitalism and democracy focus on the short term. Randers observes that the only high-profile leaders who have recently been able to force wise, long-term policy onto their peoples have been the European Union (in climate matters) and the Communist Party of China (in economic matters). "Both are further removed from democratic control than are most politicians."
In this review I have focused mainly on the material, quantitative aspects of Randers forecast, but he includes perceptive chapters on non-material aspects and "The Zeitgeist in 2052". He draws comparisons with other global forecasts, and provides five regional forecasts. Thirty short contributions by other specialists, on topics such as urban slums, cultural evolution, and solar energy, enlarge and diversify the text.
The book ends with 25 pages about personal decision making, on questions such as where best to live, what work to do, how to invest with peace of mind. There's thoughtful advice on focusing on satisfaction rather than income, and on developing interests that will stand the test of time.