Nuclear doom, renewables boom

Nuclear power generation suffered its biggest ever one-year fall in 2012. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) data shows that nuclear power plants around the world produced a total of 2,346 terrawatt-hours in 2012 − 7% less than in 2011, and the lowest figure since 1999. Compared to the last full year before the Fukushima accident, 2010, the nuclear industry produced 11% less electricity in 2012. The main reasons were that almost all reactors in Japan were off-line for the full calendar year, and the permanent shut-down of eight reactors in Germany.[1]

Global nuclear power capacity has not increased over the past decade despite all the hype about a nuclear renaissance. Nuclear power generated 12.3% of world electricity in 2011 − well down from the historical peak of 17% in 1993. The IAEA estimates that nuclear will account for just 4.7% to 6.2% of electricity generation in 2030.[2]

At the end of 2012, total world capacity of solar photovoltaic generation reached 100 gigawatts (GW), with 30.5 GW installed in 2012 alone. Solar PV capacity far exceeds the 2.55 GW capacity of concentrating solar power capacity worldwide, three quarters of which is in Spain.[3]

Wind power soared in 2012 with a new record for installations − 44 GW of new capacity worldwide. Total capacity exceeds 280 GW, with plants operating in more than 80 countries. China leads the world with 75 GW of wind power capacity.[4]

The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts power generation from renewable sources will exceed natural gas and be twice the contribution from nuclear energy globally by 2016.[5] The IEA's second annual Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report forecasts renewable generation will grow 40% in the next five years. Renewable energy is now the fastest-growing sector of the global power market, and will represent 25% of all generation worldwide by 2018, up from 20% in 2011.

The IEA cites two main drivers for its outlook: accelerating investment and deployment, and growing cost competitiveness versus fossil fuels. However, the IEA warns renewables still face a challenging future. Global investment fell in 2012, and policy uncertainties loom over clean energy technology in several important markets. In addition, grid integration challenges have arisen in some regions as renewables penetration has hit new levels.

"Policy uncertainty is public enemy number one," said Maria van der Hoeven from the IEA. Van der Hoeven. "Many renewables no longer require high economic incentives, but they do still need long-term policies that provide a predictable and reliable market and regulatory framework."

A record 13.1% of Australia's electricity was supplied by renewable energy in 2012, according to the Clean Energy Council's '2012 Clean Energy Australia Report'. The dominant renewable energy source in Australia remains hydro (58% of renewables) but wind (26%) and solar (8%) are increasing their share.

Clean Energy Council chief executive David Green said: "The clean energy industry contributed $4.2 billion in investment and approximately 24,300 jobs to the Australian economy in 2012. The cost of fossil fuels such as gas has been going up, while clean energy has been getting cheaper – fast. Earlier this year the millionth solar power system was installed, while last year was a record one for Australia's wind power businesses, with the country's 62 wind farms powering the equivalent of more than one million homes for the first time." [6]

References

[1] World Nuclear News, 20 June 2013, 'Nuclear power down in 2012'

www.world-nuclear-news.org/NN_Nuclear_power_down_in_2012_2006131.html

[2] See section 6 in ACF, 2013, 'Yellowcake Fever: exposing the uranium industry’s economic myths'

www.acfonline.org.au/news-media/media-release/high-risk-low-return-urani...

[3] REN21 Renewables Global Status Report, 2013, www.ren21.net

[4] J. Matthew Roney, 2 April 2013, 'Wind Power'

www.earth-policy.org/indicators/C49/wind_power_2013

[5] Silvio Marcacci, 26 June 2013, 'IEA: Renewable power to exceed gas by 2016 and double nuclear'

http://cleantechnica.com/2013/06/26/iea-renewables-will-exceed-natural-g...

The IEA's second annual Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report is posted at

www.iea.org/Textbase/npsum/MTrenew2013SUM.pdf

[6] 'New record for clean energy in Australia', 5 June 2013

www.businessspectator.com.au/news/2013/6/5/renewable-energy/new-record-c...